Scenario Planning Framework
By: A Staff Writer
Updated on: Jul 19, 2024
What: Constructing multiple “what if?” futures. Differs from forecasting, which tries to predict a single outcome.
Who: Used in the military for a long time, popularized in business by Shell Oil in the 1970s.
Why: The future is uncertain. Helps entrepreneurs build resilience, so one potential event doesn’t derail everything.
When: For any decision with long-term impact, during strategic planning, or when your industry landscape is likely to be disrupted.
How:
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- Identify key uncertainties that could really impact you.
- Develop 3-4 divergent but plausible scenarios. Force yourself to think outside the box.